sports projections. model vs. market.
Model projections for analysis and entertainment. Not betting advice.
We don't take bets, link to sportsbooks, or promote gambling. We aren't affiliated with any league, team, or sportsbook.
What this is
NerdLine Sports publishes short videos and weekly breakdowns built from our own projection models. Each week we compare what the model projects for every game with what the market line says, and we point out where the two disagree.
We're starting with football (NFL and college). More sports will follow as the models are built.
Model
NYG by 2.3
Market
ARI by 1.5
Example from a real projection: week 4, ARI @ NYG. The model and the market disagree on who wins.
How we keep it honest
- Every projected game is graded after it's played: straight-up, against the spread, and over/under, using the line we showed.
- The running record is public, wins and losses alike.
- A disagreement with the market is an observation, not a recommendation. Markets are hard to beat, and our backtests say so.
- Every video is reviewed by a person before it's published.